Ongoing planning

A one-time retirement projection gives you a snapshot. Ongoing planning keeps that picture accurate as your life—and the world—changes.

It starts with a baseline

Before we can monitor anything, we need to know where you stand. I calculate a fundedness ratio—the relationship between your resources (savings, Social Security, pensions, other income) and your projected spending needs over a 30+ year horizon.

Above 100% means your resources are projected to cover your needs. Below 100% means there's a shortfall worth understanding. Either way, it's a starting point—not an answer.

The initial analysis also stress-tests your situation against poor market sequences, longer-than-expected life, and other scenarios. This gives us a sense of how much margin you have and where the vulnerabilities are.

What we monitor—and why

Retirement planning isn't something you set and forget. Several things change over time, and tracking them helps us stay calibrated to your actual situation rather than outdated assumptions.

Your fundedness ratio

I recalculate this at least annually, and more often if something significant changes—a large expense, a market swing, a change in your plans. The goal isn't to react to every fluctuation, but to know when a real adjustment is warranted.

Sustainable withdrawal rates

You may have heard of the "4% rule"—the idea that you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio each year. The reality is more nuanced. Morningstar's research team recalculates safe withdrawal rates annually based on current market conditions. In recent years, their estimates have ranged from 3.7% to 4.0% for a 30-year retirement with 90% confidence.1

More importantly, dynamic withdrawal strategies—ones that adjust based on portfolio performance—can support higher sustainable spending than rigid rules. The tradeoff is accepting some variability in income from year to year.2

How your spending actually evolves

One of the most consistent findings in retirement research is that real spending tends to decline as people age—typically 1-2% per year.3 By age 85, most retirees are spending 25-30% less in real terms than they did at the start of retirement.

This doesn't mean you should plan to spend less. It means the common assumption of constant inflation-adjusted spending often overstates what you'll actually need—which can lead to unnecessary anxiety or excessive frugality early on.

The pattern isn't perfectly smooth, though. JPMorgan's research on 5 million households found that 60% of retirees experience 20% or more variability in spending from year to year.4 Life isn't linear, and neither is spending.

Spending shocks

Most people assume healthcare is the big wildcard in retirement. It matters, but research from T. Rowe Price found that home-related expenses actually drive more spending variability—about 25% of total variance, compared to 5% for healthcare.5

The Center for Retirement Research found that 83% of households face at least one spending shock per year, averaging around $7,100.6 These aren't catastrophes—they're normal. A good plan has room for them.

The real tail risk is long-term care. About 80% of people over 65 will need some form of long-term care, and costs can be significant—private nursing home care averages over $125,000 per year.7 We factor this into stress testing and discuss whether dedicated planning makes sense for your situation.

Longevity

Planning horizons need to be longer than most people assume. A 65-year-old woman has nearly a 1-in-3 chance of living to 90. For a couple both reaching 65, there's a 50% chance one spouse makes it to 93.8

Americans living to 100 are expected to quadruple by 2054.9 Extending your retirement by just five years raises the risk of running short by over 40%. This isn't about scaring you into hoarding money—it's about making sure the plan accounts for a realistic range of outcomes.

How adjustments work

The point of monitoring isn't to make constant changes. It's to know when a change is actually warranted—and when the right move is to stay the course.

Most years, the annual review confirms that things are on track. We update the numbers, talk through anything that's changed in your life, and move on.

Sometimes the review surfaces something worth adjusting: a withdrawal rate that's drifted too high, an asset allocation that no longer fits your timeline, a new goal or concern that changes the picture. When that happens, we discuss the options and make a deliberate decision together.

What we don't do is react to short-term market movements or headlines. The plan is built to absorb normal volatility. Adjustments happen when something fundamental shifts—not when the news is noisy.

What ongoing clients receive

Annual review A full update of your fundedness ratio, projections, and stress tests—plus a call to talk through what's changed and what it means.
Investment management Portfolio oversight, rebalancing, and tax-aware decisions—handled for you, aligned to your plan.
Access when you need it Questions come up between reviews. I'm available by email and phone to help you think through decisions as they arise.
Updated projections when things change Major life events—retiring earlier, a big expense, an inheritance—warrant a fresh look. We update the model when it matters, not just once a year.

See where you stand

The first step is understanding your current situation. From there, we can talk about whether ongoing planning makes sense.

Email me to get started

Sources

1. Morningstar, "The State of Retirement Income" (2024, 2025). Morningstar recalculates safe withdrawal rates annually; recent estimates for a 30-year horizon at 90% success have ranged from 3.7% (2024) to 3.9% (2025). Link
2. Morningstar found that dynamic strategies like "guardrails" (adjusting spending based on portfolio performance) can support starting withdrawal rates of 5.2-5.3%, though with more income variability. Kitces Research (2024) documented the potential downside of guardrails approaches in poor market environments.
3. Blanchett, David, "Estimating the True Cost of Retirement" (Journal of Financial Planning, 2014); updated findings discussed in PGIM research (2024). Real spending declines 1-2% annually for most retirees.
4. JPMorgan Chase, analysis of spending patterns across 5 million households. Spending drops 30%+ between ages 60-85 on average, but 60% of retirees see 20%+ year-over-year variability. Guide to Retirement 2025
5. T. Rowe Price (2024). Home-related expenses account for ~25% of spending variance in retirement; healthcare accounts for ~5%.
6. Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. 83% of retiree households experience at least one spending shock annually, averaging ~$7,100.
7. Genworth Cost of Care Survey (2024). Private nursing home care averages $127,750/year. Roughly 80% of those 65+ will need some form of long-term care.
8. Social Security Administration (2025 Trustees Report); Society of Actuaries longevity tables. A 65-year-old woman has ~30% chance of reaching 90. For couples both at 65, ~50% chance one reaches 93.
9. Nationwide/American College of Financial Services (2024-2025). Americans living to 100 projected to quadruple by 2054; extending retirement by 5 years raises depletion risk by 41%.